I think it makes more sense that this was a pre-decided time to transition. Let’s look at the evidence.

First, the new guy’s initials are S.C. (Scott Calvin/Santa Claus). Heavy coincidence.

Second, when Santa disappears, he gives a friendly wave. Not exactly sad death throes.

Third, why the fuck is Santa stomping around for 10 minutes on the roof? For the matter, why is he even out of the sleigh? It’s shown he floats straight to the chimney, of which there was one.

Fourth, where’s the bag? Look again – Santa has no bag up on the roof. He’s just stomping around up there until Scott Calvin comes out, then pretends to fall. No reason Santa is out of the sleigh without his bag EXCEPT to lure out Scott.

Fifth, this is explains why the elves are not surprised in any way when a new Santa rolls in. They knew the new Santa was coming that night. You seriously expect me to believe not ONE elf is like ‘oh shit, Santa is dead! So sad!’. No, of course not. They’re not sad because he already said his goodbyes.

Sixth, if it WAS an accident, where are the elves? The elves monitor Santa’s trip. We see their E.L.F flight squad later in the movie. So why didn’t they show up when the plan went to shit? Because it was all planned.

Seventh, the elf that lets them in a the North Pole’ doesn’t give ‘new santa’ a second look. He barely even looks at him as he walks up to drop the sleigh down. There is no scenario in which this dude isn’t like’ who the fuck is yelling at me from the sleigh’ except that it was planned.

Eighth, also elf reactions. Notice they surround the sleigh platform as it lowers, all smiling. Not ONE FACE changes when its Scott on the sleigh and not Santa. Not ONE.

Ninth, Scott notices that Bernard said the other Santa was gone – BEFORE Scott tells him this information. Bernard knew Santa was not coming back. Period.

Tenth, They did NOT know Charlie was coming. The natural implication of this is that they DID know Scott was.

Eleventh – Pay attention sheeple. Bernard reads the card: “In putting on the suit and entering the sleigh, the wearer waives any and all rights to any previous identity, real or implied, and fully accepts the duties and responsibilities of Santa Claus in perpetuity until such time that wearer becomes unable to do so by either accident or design”. By accident OR DESIGN.

It’s a set up from the beginning. They don’t explain the trigger for the transition, but if you think this shit was an accident, I have a bridge to sell you my friend.